BREAKING NEWS: John McCain announcing his chocie for Veep:
Seriously... Lots of diaries about Obama's choice, but McCain's matters even more. McCain's choice is probably going to make or break the election for him, which WILL directly impact Obama's choice. More on the flip.
NOTE: Please reinforce JOHN MCCAIN = MONTGOMERY BURNS!
Also: Yes, I know Dems convention is first. I think we'll know McCain's veep well before then.
A GOP Veep Cattle Call and its Impact on Obama's Choice
McCain does not have the luxury of going for a reinforcing choice. He has to pick someone who both has the requisite experience to be President, is young enough to silence some of the age issues, and who makes conservatives REALLY happy. Who would that be? Its a short list, made even more difficult by the lack of competent Republican office-holders.
But a note: any female on the ticket all but forces Obama to pick a female running mate.
Top Tier
Tim Pawlenty (Gov MN) Pawlenty gives McCain everything: youth, conservative cred, a winnable state (less so w/Obama as nominee). Its probably 50/50 Pawlenty vs the rest of the field.
Jodi Rell (Gov CT) My money is on Rell. She's popular, she probably wins CT for McCain if the race were tight enough for CT to matter- which would be big. Again, forces Obama to pick a female. She and McCain would be the "early bird special" ticket (she looks older than she is) and that chemistry would be important whether it worked or not.
Tom Ridge (Gov PA) Foreign policy emphasis (remember Ridge invented the color coded terror alerts- we need a mind like THAT at Veep), and the big enchilada (which is curiously shaped like an enchilada though it ironically doesn't have a lot of hispanics)- Pennsylvania.
Charlie Crist (Gov FL) Despite appearing to be the Republican's answer to Gray Davis, he is semi-popular in Florida and would all but guarantee the state is a lock for McCain, helpful since McCain will lack money. Younger than he looks, no one would worry about his health, and he would be the safest most neutral choice. A choice McCain would make if he were winning or down a couple. He can't choose Crist if he's down 10+.
The Second Tier Mike Huckabee (fmr Gov. AR) The Huckster has a lot going for him. The exception that proves the rule. He's a Republican a lot of Dems can live with. He brings the Christians, and its the Christians who McCain needs much more than the neocons or disaffected Hannity listeners. He has charisma, great campaigner, probably wins Arkansas for McCain and might help in MO (more on this later).
Kay Bailey Hutchinson (SEN TX) One of two women on McCain's list. She wouldn't hurt with Conservatives, would help enough in Texas to keep Obama from being tempted. Any female on the ticket forces Obama to go w/a female.
Mitt Romney (fmr Gov MA) The Gods are just not so kind as to give us a McCain/Mitt ticket. If MI voters are still pissed about the primary (yeah right) perhaps Mitt could assist in that state, but probably not. Oh please please please let it be Mitt.
Sleepers
John Thune (SEN SD)
Young, conservative. Doesn't give McCain much for EVs, but is a relatively appealing, safe choice. (If that's what McCain wants, he'll go with Crist).
Mark Sanford (Gov SC)
Young, conservative, helps throughout the south. Might be a good choice to reassure Conservatives.
JC Watts (Frmr Rep OK)
This would be a little too obvious, though Watts would certainly change the dynamic a small degree.
Obama's Short List
Kathleen Sebelius or Claire McCaskill
Bill Richardson or Clark
Tim Kaine
If McCain picks Jodi Rell or KB Hutchinson (Rell more likely) Obama will have to pick one of the two, most likely Sebelius.
If McCain picks Tom Ridge, Obama will probably have to go with Bill Richarsdson or Clark.
But if McCain picks Pawlenty or Crist, both youngish Governors with little other experience, then Obama is free to pick Tim Kaine.
What does Kaine bring?
Wildly popular in Virginia, wins that state.
As a former Missionary, might bring some independent Christians w/Obama.
Reinforces the change theme.
Republicans will have a hard time egging Obama's veep if McCain's is equally inexperienced.
My bet for the fall:
McCain/Pawlenty vs. Obama/Kaine
